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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Mar 2021

      Here's a quick primer on how to build a quant reversion strategy. First step is to find a price series that looks like it may have some reverting behaviour -- this is a random stock I found that looks reasonable but you could use an ETF, currency, whatever really.pic.twitter.com/dTYMeWhQ61

      13 replies 42 retweets 327 likes
      Show this thread
    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Mar 2021

      Don't want to over complicate it so let's look at a crossover of two moving averages with speeds N and 2*N -- when the fast average is above the slow one we go short, and when below we go long. Plotting the Sharpe ratio as a function of EMA speed shows a nice peak at ~7 days.pic.twitter.com/DOn7j147JQ

      2 replies 0 retweets 29 likes
      Show this thread
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Mar 2021

      Obviously you should do some parameter averaging, e.g. you could compute the signal using various speeds from 5-15 days and average the positions over each parameter choice, to make the strategy robust.

      1 reply 0 retweets 19 likes
      Show this thread
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Mar 2021

      This is just an example so I'll use the 7 day moving avg. Chart below shows performance of this strategy. Need to remember that we picked the best parameter in-sample plus there will be transaction costs so real world performance will not be this good, but it looks promising!pic.twitter.com/ZgmfUymkwV

      1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
      Show this thread
    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Mar 2021

      With some additional robustness checks and careful implementation of a simulator for fill prices, commissions etc you are well on your way to launching your first quant strategy.

      1 reply 0 retweets 22 likes
      Show this thread
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Mar 2021

      Only problem is that the price series is one I generated using 100% random noise, it is completely unpredictable by any signal. Congratulations, you now know how to overfit a backtest. Welcome to quant research.

      4:20 AM - 12 Mar 2021
      • 11 Retweets
      • 348 Likes
      • Ed C. Ex-cop. Linux Founder. Day trader. Flaky Puff (Secretly Chinese) $lim John 🏗️ buy or die Fish You’re Killing Vaccinated Intelligent Zombies Kwantek mocno poirytowany renny 🇺🇦
      30 replies 11 retweets 348 likes
        1. lolstockaments‏ @lolstockaments 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          few understand

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Tho Do‏ @thodoha 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          pic.twitter.com/j4KkwnP4qb

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Mitchell Rosenthal‏ @M1tchRosenthal 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          This is awesome, I like the idea of plotting sharpe as a function of parameter setting to find the sweet spot... good to bet on multiple settings tho for robustness. Since this series randomm,Any xtra steps u do to scrutinize whether it works bc of luck? Or is that always a risk

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Cat Ears - Scoot‏ @InfoRatioed 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @M1tchRosenthal @macrocephalopod

          1. Don’t do any of these steps

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Freak0naut‏ @FREAK0NAUT 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          why you need all these moving averages?pic.twitter.com/tuFVsyS3MJ

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Freak0naut‏ @FREAK0NAUT 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @FREAK0NAUT @macrocephalopod

          this way you assume no distributional properties of the time series, you don't have your overfitting and back testing issues...?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. NilssonHedge‏ @nilssonhedge 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          Even simpler would be too look for runs. And it would give you an nice indication if the time series is behaving as a random distribution.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Chris David‏ @ChrisDa93824038 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          @threadreaderapp unroll

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          fuckin beautiful

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 12 Mar 2021
          Replying to @nope_its_lily @macrocephalopod

          https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/17906142-etf-protrader/4834156-how-to-beat-s-and-p-500-8-1 …

          3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. End of conversation

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