Q about modeling. How do u decide betw using something as a continuous variable, or a dummy variable (either 0 or 1)? Let's say Im modeling futureReturns. A potential feature is currentPriceDistance from50dayTrend. I could use a dummy, 1 if distance>thresh,else0. @therobotjames
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Discretising continuous variables can also lead to jumps in your forecast if the underlying variable meanders around the threshold over time, which lead to undesirable turnover in your strategy (which costs you money)
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Ah I understand now!! How about output? Is it generally to try to model a continuous variable (futureRet), or to a logit regression to model odds of a category (TopDecileRet)? If Y is cont, confused on how to trade a model, do you adjust your exposure as expctd y changs?
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