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macrocephalopod
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@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Mitchell Rosenthal‏ @M1tchRosenthal 10 Mar 2021

      Q about modeling. How do u decide betw using something as a continuous variable, or a dummy variable (either 0 or 1)? Let's say Im modeling futureReturns. A potential feature is currentPriceDistance from50dayTrend. I could use a dummy, 1 if distance>thresh,else0. @therobotjames

      8 replies 0 retweets 38 likes
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    2. Mitchell Rosenthal‏ @M1tchRosenthal 10 Mar 2021

      @macrocephalopod may have an idea as well

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 Mar 2021
      Replying to @M1tchRosenthal

      Always continuous!

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @M1tchRosenthal

      Assuming you are trying for a predictive regression, that is. Compressing to 0/1 is throwing away information, plus it gives you many more opportunities to overfit as you will be tempted to choose the threshold to get a good result.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @M1tchRosenthal

      Only reasons for using dummy variables are (a) you have a categorical (unordered) variable that you need to encode (b) the feature is essentially two-class anyway (e.g. very bimodal distribution) and you don’t think the variations around the peaks add any information.

      2:35 PM - 10 Mar 2021
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      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @M1tchRosenthal

          Discretising continuous variables can also lead to jumps in your forecast if the underlying variable meanders around the threshold over time, which lead to undesirable turnover in your strategy (which costs you money)

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
        3. Mitchell Rosenthal‏ @M1tchRosenthal 10 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          Ah I understand now!! How about output? Is it generally to try to model a continuous variable (futureRet), or to a logit regression to model odds of a category (TopDecileRet)? If Y is cont, confused on how to trade a model, do you adjust your exposure as expctd y changs?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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