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So the question is “are markets efficient?” and the answer is “obviously not” as the existence of firms like Renaissance, Millennium or DE Shaw can testify to (you can think of them as a thirty year experiment in testing the efficient markets hypothesis)
But markets are pretty close to efficient (maybe 99% of the way there) and inefficiencies disappear over time, so the average retail trader should treat markets as though they are efficient, and just buy stocks/bonds (in fact so should the 98th percentile retail trader!)
That sounds like the average retail investor, not trader. Or perhaps youre saying the average retail trader should not be one?
The average retail trader should not trade. The average retail investor should build a broadly diversified portfolio entered over time and hold. There are some nuances at the professional level, but this sums up the normative perspective in investing.
IMO it’s easier to screen for inefficiency than for normalcy. The small % of great / awful companies with mismatched metrics will tend to jump out and they’re oh so tempting to take a risk on.
How do you reliably screen for inefficiency?
I like the overall picture, but Ho w do you define ‘inefficient’ in a way that isn’t just descriptive?
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