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“Efficient” is a more helpful word which loosely means “you can’t reliably make money except by doing the obvious things which everyone agrees will make money” (eg buying stocks or bonds, or supplying liquidity)
So the question is “are markets efficient?” and the answer is “obviously not” as the existence of firms like Renaissance, Millennium or DE Shaw can testify to (you can think of them as a thirty year experiment in testing the efficient markets hypothesis)
But markets are pretty close to efficient (maybe 99% of the way there) and inefficiencies disappear over time, so the average retail trader should treat markets as though they are efficient, and just buy stocks/bonds (in fact so should the 98th percentile retail trader!)
That sounds like the average retail investor, not trader. Or perhaps youre saying the average retail trader should not be one?
I’ve always thought the better proposed question is “how efficient are markets?” In certain regimes very, and in others less so. It also recognizes that perhaps large cap equity may be more efficient than emerging market debt.
To you point though, it’s difficult for the average retail traders to exploit perceived inefficiencies. Institutions with size and computing abilities can really leverage predictable patterns/trends.
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