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“Random” is just an extremely unhelpful word when applied to markets because it can mean anything from true randomness (eg beta decay) to the randomness of a roulette table, where outcomes are uncertain but you are guaranteed to lose given enough time.
“Efficient” is a more helpful word which loosely means “you can’t reliably make money except by doing the obvious things which everyone agrees will make money” (eg buying stocks or bonds, or supplying liquidity)
So the question is “are markets efficient?” and the answer is “obviously not” as the existence of firms like Renaissance, Millennium or DE Shaw can testify to (you can think of them as a thirty year experiment in testing the efficient markets hypothesis)
But markets are pretty close to efficient (maybe 99% of the way there) and inefficiencies disappear over time, so the average retail trader should treat markets as though they are efficient, and just buy stocks/bonds (in fact so should the 98th percentile retail trader!)
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