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@macrocephalopod If we’re all aware that markets are indeed random, why do any of us waste time trying to predict it? This has been bugging me for some time now.
Well, what do you mean by random? There are several obvious non-random effects like “stocks go up on average” or “you make money on average by lending to corporates or sovereigns”.
“Random” is just an extremely unhelpful word when applied to markets because it can mean anything from true randomness (eg beta decay) to the randomness of a roulette table, where outcomes are uncertain but you are guaranteed to lose given enough time.
“Efficient” is a more helpful word which loosely means “you can’t reliably make money except by doing the obvious things which everyone agrees will make money” (eg buying stocks or bonds, or supplying liquidity)
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