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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 7 Mar 2021

      macrocephalopod Retweeted Paul

      This is a weirdly common misreading of Mandelbrot. His main contribution was noting three properties of markets that are not well captured by Brownian motion models — 1. fat tails 2. heteroskedasticity 3. long-range correlations (eg power law decay in acf of absolute returns)https://twitter.com/desgrippes/status/1368389916812533768 …

      macrocephalopod added,

      Paul @desgrippes
      Replying to @CorsairRig @jam_croissant @macrocephalopod
      Read 'The Misbehavior of Markets' by Benoit Mandelbrot. He showed (mathematically) the movements are anything but 100% random.
      7 replies 14 retweets 148 likes
      Show this thread
    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 7 Mar 2021

      All of those are completely consistent with markets being random! It just means that simple random models (like gbm) do not sufficiently capture observed market behaviour.

      2 replies 0 retweets 31 likes
      Show this thread
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 7 Mar 2021

      Mandelbrot proposed a fractal model of markets based on taking a cartoon stock price chart and randomly replicating it on smaller and smaller scales (like how you can build any other fractal, but with random instead of deterministic replications).

      2 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
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    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 7 Mar 2021

      This market model has fat tails, heteroskedasticity and long-range dependence, but it is still largely random! Mandelbrot did *not* show that markets are not random. He offered an alternative kind of randomness that matched observed data better than gbm.

      1 reply 2 retweets 42 likes
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    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 7 Mar 2021

      The fractal model of markets never caught on because it was too hard to make it practical for the kind of thing that practitioners cared about — i.e. the pricing and hedging of large derivatives books. We developed more practical models that solved the problem in a different way,

      2 replies 0 retweets 20 likes
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    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 7 Mar 2021

      largely local volatility and later stochastic volatility models which explicitly build in time-varying volatility and hence generate fat tails and heteroskedasticity. Like all models they are wrong, but unlike the fractal model, they are useful.

      5 replies 1 retweet 28 likes
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      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 7 Mar 2021

      That’s all I have to say about it really. Mandelbrot was not wrong, in fact he was ahead of his time — but his research led in an unproductive direction. The fetishisation of his ideas that has cropped up in the last 10-15 years is weird and I attribute it mostly to people who

      3:19 AM - 7 Mar 2021
      • 28 Likes
      • Ashrit Mononokeynes 🇺🇦🇺🇸🇼🇸 body double Stamper David Fitzpatrick Nd1(🐊,🐊) Chairman Birb Bernanke
      3 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 7 Mar 2021

          have read “fooled by randomness” or “the black swan” once and largely failed to understand them 🤷‍♀️

          2 replies 0 retweets 25 likes
          Show this thread
        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 7 Mar 2021

          I feel like @EmanuelDerman would have a much better take on this than I do!

          2 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
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        4. End of conversation
        1. Midwestern Hedgie‏ @MidwestHedgie 7 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          extreme volatility is more likely during times of volatility is a useful Mandelbrot gem, imo

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. return to reply guy‏ @neoliberal_dad 7 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          He also set Taleb loose on the world.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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