This is a weirdly common misreading of Mandelbrot. His main contribution was noting three properties of markets that are not well captured by Brownian motion models — 1. fat tails 2. heteroskedasticity 3. long-range correlations (eg power law decay in acf of absolute returns)https://twitter.com/desgrippes/status/1368389916812533768 …
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That’s all I have to say about it really. Mandelbrot was not wrong, in fact he was ahead of his time — but his research led in an unproductive direction. The fetishisation of his ideas that has cropped up in the last 10-15 years is weird and I attribute it mostly to people who
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have read “fooled by randomness” or “the black swan” once and largely failed to understand them
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I feel like
@EmanuelDerman would have a much better take on this than I do!Show this thread
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any resources from which an interested finance student can learn more about this particular topic (modern volatility models)
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Have you took a look at Taleb's latest ? "Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails". Wanted to know your take on it.
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@KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeDDale I would be interested to hear your thoughts on these comments as I am not proficient enough to reply but I know your process (which I can testify works well) uses Mandelbrot's findings as part of the building blocks?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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LV model (dupire) doesn't generate fat tails. It just matches prices of European options SV models generate smile in the imp vol surface, very generous to call that fat tails, but it is allowed Fractal models are becoming more popular, see rough volatility by gatheral
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