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That leaves us with one possible mechanical explanation, dealer hedging due to positive gamma exposure which *could* cause an intraday reversal although unlikely to cause one as big as what we saw on Friday. A partial answer, not the whole answer.
But look, we don’t need (nor should we expect) mechanical explanations for every market move! Sometimes the market moves just because a big buyer came along for reasons completely unrelated to whatever else was going on at the time. Sometimes it reverses because it looked ...
undervalued to someone and they stepped in to buy at a discount. Sometimes it moves for no goddamn reason whatsoever. If market moves were predictable for mechanical reasons there would be a lot more people keeping quiet and making money off it, not coming onto twitter...
and shouting about it to anyone who will listen. Searching for an explanation for every market move is a game for fools and charlatans. The best most of us can do is stay focused, stick to your process and keep searching for that 1% signal in the noise.
financial media + sell side can’t have us thinking like that. One of fav snips from the Jim Simons book was they f’d up an algo that bid ags up huge one day. Newspapers later explained the move as due to crop reports in Brazil - unrelated to the actual cause but sounding smart
Perhaps a PM at some Asian sovereign wealth fund got wasted on Friday night and decided to buy the dip...
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