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@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. edwin‏ @edwin_teejay 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @FPyLPython @macrocephalopod @NicoGladia

      Maybe @ole_b_peters or @alex_adamou will care to explain what did they mean when they wrote that the S&P 500 suffers from survivorship bias.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Alex Adamou‏ @alex_adamou 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @edwin_teejay @FPyLPython and

      Isn't it clear in the quote? It is, by definition, an index of 500 successful companies, from which constituents are removed when they cease to be successful. So it's a basket of winners (survivors). Happy to be corrected factually by a market expert if wrong.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @alex_adamou @edwin_teejay and

      The historical performance of the index includes the performance all of the companies that were removed hence there is no survivorship bias in the index. This is a very simple concept and it is incredible that you don’t seem to understand it.

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @alex_adamou and

      Like, you either don’t understand how the index performance is calculated or you don’t understand what “survivorship bias” means and either of those is pretty amazing if you are writing papers claiming to revolutionise finance.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. Alex Adamou‏ @alex_adamou 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @edwin_teejay and

      To help you understand how this works, I created an S&P1.pic.twitter.com/VrYbtbsYmo

      4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @alex_adamou @macrocephalopod and

      Do you think shorting every stock that falls out of the index is a good bet?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Alex Adamou‏ @alex_adamou 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @therobotjames @macrocephalopod and

      Sorry, I don't give investment advice.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @alex_adamou @macrocephalopod and

      I don't want it. I'm trying to understand what you are trying to say when you refer to "survivorship bias" because you are not using it in the way a finance professional would use it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @therobotjames @alex_adamou and

      I think you think that the "constituents [which] are removed when they cease to be successful" have lower forward expected returns than the stocks which remain in (or are added to) the index - leading to some upward "survivorship bias" in the index. I don't think that's true.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Alex Adamou‏ @alex_adamou 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @therobotjames @macrocephalopod and

      Try to infer what I think from what I say. Where do I discuss "forward expected returns"? The point is simple: if stocks must meet qualifying criteria to appear in an index, then the index differs systematically from one without those criteria.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @alex_adamou @therobotjames and

      You literally said “The index suffers from survivorship bias ... this acts in the opposite direction to the first caveat” which implies you think the index overstates the performance of a real investment (eg in an S&P 500 ETF). Just admit it’s a mistake and move on 🤷‍♀️

      3:21 AM - 3 Mar 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Ilari Lehti
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Alex Adamou‏ @alex_adamou 3 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @therobotjames and

          I am still mystified about this mistake you would like me to admit. I asked for a factual correction and none was forthcoming. And, no, I did not claim the S&P500 overstates the performance of the S&P500. Ending this silliness now.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Ilari Lehti‏ @IlariLehti 3 Mar 2021
          Replying to @alex_adamou @macrocephalopod and

          Does it overstate something? If so, what does it overstate? You said it's a basket of winners (survivors) and none of us understands what that might mean. It's a basket of large cap stocks at any given time.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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