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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Mar 2021

      Lmao at this “hedge fund replication” strategy that “outperforms the SPX from 2008-20”, based on following 13F filings for 40 hedge funds *that were selected because they outperformed the SPX from 2008-20* https://imarketsignals.com/2021/outperforming-the-sp-500-with-50-consensus-stock-holdings-of-40-large-hedge-funds/ …

      20 replies 6 retweets 266 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Nico 🇨🇭 🇹🇭‏ @NicoGladia 1 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      Reminds me a word not read since a while... "Survivorship biais"... 😂

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. edwin‏ @edwin_teejay 1 Mar 2021
      Replying to @NicoGladia @macrocephalopod

      Were you aware that the S&P 500 also suffers from survivorship bias? At least if you believe these gentlemen: https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.4548 pic.twitter.com/a36a0Z7RdP

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Mar 2021
      Replying to @edwin_teejay @NicoGladia

      That is an incredible misunderstanding of how the S&P 500 index works. Where is it from?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. edwin‏ @edwin_teejay 1 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @NicoGladia

      edwin Retweeted Ole Peters

      I included the link to a preprint https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.4548  I don't know if they've tried to publish it. But they surely complain bitterly about how economics journals reject other papers of theirs:https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1294216181159796736 …

      edwin added,

      Ole Peters @ole_b_peters
      Also interesting: the paper was rejected by 14 economics journals, if I've counted correctly, for questioning the ergodic hypothesis. That's about one man-year of authors, editors, reviewers expended on suppressing research. $100,000? $200,000? #ThisIsNotAPublicationSystem https://twitter.com/alex_adamou/status/1294170204822556673 …
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Mar 2021
      Replying to @edwin_teejay @NicoGladia

      I am *shocked* that a physicist who claims to have a theory of everything for finance has fundamental misconceptions about how basic things like “stock indices” work.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    7. Signore ViaGetti‏ @FPyLPython 2 Mar 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @edwin_teejay @NicoGladia

      It seems what that paper is actually saying is that the S&P500 suffers from survivorship bias if used as a proxy for a generic diversified investment in US stocks, which I think is true, given it will not have the same distribution as a basket of all tradable US stocks

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. edwin‏ @edwin_teejay 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @FPyLPython @macrocephalopod @NicoGladia

      Maybe @ole_b_peters or @alex_adamou will care to explain what did they mean when they wrote that the S&P 500 suffers from survivorship bias.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Alex Adamou‏ @alex_adamou 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @edwin_teejay @FPyLPython and

      Isn't it clear in the quote? It is, by definition, an index of 500 successful companies, from which constituents are removed when they cease to be successful. So it's a basket of winners (survivors). Happy to be corrected factually by a market expert if wrong.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Mar 2021
      Replying to @alex_adamou @edwin_teejay and

      The historical performance of the index includes the performance all of the companies that were removed hence there is no survivorship bias in the index. This is a very simple concept and it is incredible that you don’t seem to understand it.

      1:27 AM - 3 Mar 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 3 Likes
      • Nico🇨🇭🇹🇭 Robot James 🤖🏖 edwin Rick Sanchez
      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @alex_adamou and

          Like, you either don’t understand how the index performance is calculated or you don’t understand what “survivorship bias” means and either of those is pretty amazing if you are writing papers claiming to revolutionise finance.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Alex Adamou‏ @alex_adamou 3 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @edwin_teejay and

          To help you understand how this works, I created an S&P1.pic.twitter.com/VrYbtbsYmo

          4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Alex Adamou‏ @alex_adamou 3 Mar 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @edwin_teejay and

          Yes, but only while they were large and successful companies. Their performance is no longer included after their removal. That is also a very simple concept, etc.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. edwin‏ @edwin_teejay 3 Mar 2021
          Replying to @alex_adamou @macrocephalopod and

          The "bias" you talk about is relative to what? Would a total market index also suffer from "survivorship bias"?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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