Turns out you can outperform the S&P 500 simply by only buying the stocks that went up, who knew this incredible investing secret?
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Lmao at this “hedge fund replication” strategy that “outperforms the SPX from 2008-20”, based on following 13F filings for 40 hedge funds *that were selected because they outperformed the SPX from 2008-20* https://imarketsignals.com/2021/outperforming-the-sp-500-with-50-consensus-stock-holdings-of-40-large-hedge-funds/ …
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Reminds me a word not read since a while... "Survivorship biais"...
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For people dealing almost exclusively in statistics and probability we sure are shite at it
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What am I missing? It doesn’t seem to be holdings that outperformed, but rather a 45 day lag.pic.twitter.com/Eb47eHObfC
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Can also extract relevant factors to build a screen to, at times, preemptively buy the stocks too. Outperforms even more. And, as you pretty much point out, almost every model built will include a momentum component.
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This isn’t momentum. This is screening / selecting from only outperforming funds ex post.
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Sounds like the Mark Twain investing philosophy of "Only buy stocks that go up. If they don't go up, don't buy 'em."
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