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Many people are obsessed with understanding George Soros’s “investment philosophy” which is actually very simple, here I will break it down for you.
1. The most important thing to understand about Soros is that what he *wanted* was to be a philosopher but what he was *good at* was trading which led him to write several books disguising his ideas about trading with pseudo-philosophical bullshit (eg “reflexivity”)
2. His trading can be mostly summed up as “get involved in trends”, “stop being involved when the trend has ended and they are obviously over/undervalued”, and “have an insane risk tolerance but good risk management”.
3. This worked out great for him because he was active at a time when markets were really inefficient and trend following worked really well. It probably won’t work any more (eg see Druckenmiller’s recent performance)
I reckon, with the benefit of hindsight, we can now understand most "old school macro guy" performance as a factor exposure (trend, carry). Doesn't diminish the achievement of those who worked these things out and exploited them before they were wildly known, mind you...
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