just finished my Friday night backtests - risk parity does seem to perform pretty well a lot of the times. So when does it not?
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Replying to @o_wutang
thats a great question. risk parity is at its core a bet on macro-factor dispersion and regime-stability on volatility at the macro factor level. a bad daily print looks like thursday: some reversals in time-series momentum, higher real rates AND B/Es, lower stock prices
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Replying to @NewRiverInvest @o_wutang
but thats a lazy answer. a bad year in risk-parity is characterized by a repeating pattern of sudden crashes followed by quick recoveries and unstable correlations forcing de-levering before sharp recoveries and crashing again right after a lever-up signal
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Replying to @NewRiverInvest @o_wutang
Only if you use quite short-term estimates for volatility and correlation! Risk parity does perfectly well with long-run (eg 10y) vol estimators and correlation doesn’t need to be an input at all if you have a working model of the factors driving risk premiums in each asset class
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This might be a dumb question, but do you think leverage is required for risk parity? And if so, can short term vol burn you on things like margin/liquidation risk even if you’re using longer periods for measuring allocations? Or is that more of a friction than risk of strategy?
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It’s not required but (depending on implementation) you would see 3-5% vol and annual returns of 2-4% + tbills on unlevered risk parity, so you practically always see leverage used. As with any leveraged strategy you can get burned on big short-term drawdowns.
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As @NewRiverInvest said, risk parity is a bet that macro factors will be diversified enough that the drawdowns won’t hurt that much over the long run and you can collect equity-like returns for less-than-equity risk.
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Changes in volatility increase the correlation of these macro factors. Is that the reason why RP targets vol?
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