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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest 27 Feb 2021
      Replying to @o_wutang

      so a big part is narrowing down how you implement risk-contributions. the most common mistake is levering up TRS on AGG vs levering up discrete exposures to duration, linkers, corp-credit. good implementations are more granular so you can effectively tweak exposures to specifics

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. Tong‏ @o_wutang 27 Feb 2021
      Replying to @NewRiverInvest

      this makes a lot of sense - will experiment around. thank you for sharing!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest 27 Feb 2021
      Replying to @o_wutang

      its my pleasure. risk-parity breaks down to being agnostic about risk factors and weighing them equally (tautology is useful sometimes) so the more granular you get the better you can express it. thats all there is to it really. at least in my opinion.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 27 Feb 2021
      Replying to @NewRiverInvest @o_wutang

      A few thoughts I have about risk parity (disclaimer, I don’t manage a risk parity strat except for a very simple one in my PA so I am likely missing some things).

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 27 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @NewRiverInvest @o_wutang

      The hardest bit to get right is inflation exposure. It’s tempting to ignore this since you haven’t needed it for the last 30 years and stocks + levered bonds have done really well. But look at the performance of stocks + levered bonds from 1970-1985 to see how bad it could get.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 27 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @NewRiverInvest @o_wutang

      You get inflation exposure two ways — inflation linked assets (TIPS, gilt linkers, inflation swaps) and commodities. TIPS/linkers should in theory do we in a risk off environment (diversifying stocks) but in practice it’s trickier than that since risk off environments can be

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 27 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @NewRiverInvest @o_wutang

      deflationary, and also TIPS/linkers have an illiquidity premium and tend to drop in price when credit is tight (eg 2008). Underestimating how much TIPS would sell off in a crisis is why Bridgewater All Weather did so badly in 2008. I would be tempted to use inflation swaps to get

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    8. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 27 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @NewRiverInvest @o_wutang

      the required inflation exposure instead. Commodities also give inflation exposure but they are not supposed to be investment assets, and a simple long-only investment in commodities is not expected to perform well over the long term. Some commodities (eg natural gas) even have a

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    9. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 27 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @NewRiverInvest @o_wutang

      negative risk premium! So the commodity sleeve should use indicators like time series momentum, curve roll down, seasonality, tightness of supply etc to determine a basket of commodities that gives you the growth + inflation exposure you want but also offers +ve risk premium

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    10. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 27 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @NewRiverInvest @o_wutang

      Finally risk parity needs leverage and it is possible to squeeze out an extra 40-50 basis points by thinking carefully about how you finance it. For example do you buy treasuries using repo or use bond futures? That makes a difference. If you have cash in the account do you park

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 27 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @NewRiverInvest @o_wutang

      it in treasury bills/money market account, or is it smarter to buy short dated AA rated corporate paper? Historically that has been very well rewarded. Small stuff like this can make a big difference!

      1:03 AM - 27 Feb 2021
      • 4 Likes
      • Tong Juan Manuel de la Hoz oronimbus Josh Giersch 🏳️‍🌈
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest 27 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @o_wutang

          nobody should pay more than 10bps for short- or mid-term FI exposure and i say that as someone who does that. i barely cover my fee most years.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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