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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

      macrocephalopod Retweeted baufinanciaphaster  👹

      I just realized that @bauhiniacapital wrote about this way more eloquently and also ~5 hours earlier here —https://twitter.com/bauhiniacapital/status/1359919232062873603 …

      macrocephalopod added,

      baufinanciaphaster  👹 @bauhiniacapital
      Carson Block of @muddywatersre writing in the FT lays the blame of stonk gyrations like GameStop (sub $20 on 12 Jan, up 18-fold in 10 trading days) squarely on low rates and passive investing. This is Hogwash, Blatherskite, Buncombe, and Taradiddle. https://www.ft.com/content/dbfc69df-7dbc-4338-a475-1432ffdc4056 …
      Show this thread
      1 reply 3 retweets 29 likes
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    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Feb 2021

      macrocephalopod Retweeted

      This thread is a great example of the incredible broken brain gymnastics that people will perform to to misunderstand how index funds work and how they impact prices. Not matter how hard I try to explain it, he keeps repeating the same meaningless point I give up! https://twitter.com/whirlybard/status/1360334892236607489 …

      macrocephalopod added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      4 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
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    3. Alex Good‏ @goodalexander 24 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      even a basic analysis of etf creation and redemption would show you that fund flows are driven by momentum

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. Alex Good‏ @goodalexander 24 Feb 2021
      Replying to @goodalexander @macrocephalopod

      furthermore the S&P 500 itself, by virtue of being cap weighted drops companies when they fall which is the definition of momentum investing

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 24 Feb 2021
      Replying to @goodalexander

      To your first point, yes absolutely, but that creates *absolute* momentum (al companies go up together) not *relative* momentum (biggest winners rise more)

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Alex Good‏ @goodalexander 24 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      the biggest winning ETFs get larger inflows, statistically, and have for over 7 years - which - because there are different indices -- drives relative outperformance of names therein -- which is explicitly a momentum effect

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 24 Feb 2021
      Replying to @goodalexander

      Yes I completely agree, eg the names in the ARK ETFs are clearly going up because of inflows to those ETFs, I have never claimed otherwise! But importantly *they are all going up together* in fact they have become super correlated purely by virtue of being held by ARK.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    8. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 24 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @goodalexander

      I mean there are tons of momentum distortionary effects, but my favorite is just the reduced liquidity and the minor price distortion of redem/creation

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Alex Good‏ @goodalexander 24 Feb 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily @macrocephalopod

      I just take issue with "retail brain fantasies" around momentum effects from passive investing. The momentum effect is innate to any form of "passive" investing that is not the Vanguard All World index bc the entire causal premise is some relative weight went up in the pastpic.twitter.com/wvf1T5hn7M

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    10. Eivindo‏ @eivindsupermann 24 Feb 2021
      Replying to @goodalexander @nope_its_lily @macrocephalopod

      I'm not sure I would consider @profplum99's research as "retail brain fantasies", but to each his own I guess.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 24 Feb 2021
      Replying to @eivindsupermann @goodalexander and

      If you think this is what Mike believes I have some bad news for you.

      11:27 PM - 24 Feb 2021
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Alex Good‏ @goodalexander 24 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @eivindsupermann and

          https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1020&context=joseph_wharton_scholars … btw I broadly agree with you that S&P additions are a meme -- ie the "Forced buying" critique. At the same time, I think Tesla is the real point - what happens when you jam a meme to one of the largest companies in the world

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Eivindo‏ @eivindsupermann 24 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @goodalexander and

          You come across as denying that passive flows are influencing the markets and pushing up valuations of indexed equities - if that is not what you meant, I apologize. The entire Tesla run is hard to explain without front running of passive funds

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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