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macrocephalopod
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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

      This is not true! A really basic cap-weighted index fund mechanic is that they automatically track the index as prices move, with no trading required. This is literally the reason that they are called *passive* funds.

      7 replies 6 retweets 87 likes
      Show this thread
    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

      For some reason this breaks people’s intuitions and they get really excited about forced buying/selling from passive funds creating positive/negative feedback loops, which, I cannot emphasise enough, is not a thing that actually happens except in retail brain fantasies.

      5 replies 4 retweets 73 likes
      Show this thread
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

      Index funds do need to trade, but only on a few specific events - mainly index adds/deletes and corporate actions (e.g. new issuance, buybacks, mergers and acquisitions).

      4 replies 3 retweets 44 likes
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    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

      There’s a whole exciting thread about *index rebalance* trades which I hope to write about one day but that is entirely separate to the day to say mechanics of index fund management, which is largely very boring and consists of making sure you are correctly

      2 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
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    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

      tracking corporate actions for the index constituents. Fin.

      4 replies 0 retweets 24 likes
      Show this thread
    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

      An important addendum is that index funds also trade when they have inflows and outflows (or an AP trades on behalf of an ETF using the create/redeem mechanism). This is important but orthogonal to the main point, which is that index funds basically never trade on price alone

      3 replies 1 retweet 30 likes
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    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

      macrocephalopod Retweeted baufinanciaphaster  👹

      I just realized that @bauhiniacapital wrote about this way more eloquently and also ~5 hours earlier here —https://twitter.com/bauhiniacapital/status/1359919232062873603 …

      macrocephalopod added,

      baufinanciaphaster  👹 @bauhiniacapital
      Carson Block of @muddywatersre writing in the FT lays the blame of stonk gyrations like GameStop (sub $20 on 12 Jan, up 18-fold in 10 trading days) squarely on low rates and passive investing. This is Hogwash, Blatherskite, Buncombe, and Taradiddle. https://www.ft.com/content/dbfc69df-7dbc-4338-a475-1432ffdc4056 …
      Show this thread
      1 reply 3 retweets 29 likes
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    8. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Feb 2021

      macrocephalopod Retweeted

      This thread is a great example of the incredible broken brain gymnastics that people will perform to to misunderstand how index funds work and how they impact prices. Not matter how hard I try to explain it, he keeps repeating the same meaningless point I give up! https://twitter.com/whirlybard/status/1360334892236607489 …

      macrocephalopod added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      4 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
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    9. Alex Good‏ @goodalexander 24 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      even a basic analysis of etf creation and redemption would show you that fund flows are driven by momentum

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Alex Good‏ @goodalexander 24 Feb 2021
      Replying to @goodalexander @macrocephalopod

      furthermore the S&P 500 itself, by virtue of being cap weighted drops companies when they fall which is the definition of momentum investing

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 24 Feb 2021
      Replying to @goodalexander

      To your first point, yes absolutely, but that creates *absolute* momentum (al companies go up together) not *relative* momentum (biggest winners rise more)

      11:09 PM - 24 Feb 2021
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 24 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @goodalexander

          To the second point, yes I agree, I don’t think I have ever argued with this, in fact I explicitly talked about index adds/deletes as an exception when a passive ETF would need to trade (as well as new issuance or buybacks)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Alex Good‏ @goodalexander 24 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          I guess - I commonly say that the indexing complex is a source of a large amount of incremental momentum investing relative to the status quo it supplanted and feel justified statistically and causally in saying so given the above -- tho I agree mechanically re S&P itself

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Alex Good‏ @goodalexander 24 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          the biggest winning ETFs get larger inflows, statistically, and have for over 7 years - which - because there are different indices -- drives relative outperformance of names therein -- which is explicitly a momentum effect

          1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 24 Feb 2021
          Replying to @goodalexander

          Yes I completely agree, eg the names in the ARK ETFs are clearly going up because of inflows to those ETFs, I have never claimed otherwise! But importantly *they are all going up together* in fact they have become super correlated purely by virtue of being held by ARK.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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