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macrocephalopod
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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 22 Feb 2021

      10/ I’m saying you should. Another way to think of it is like this: I have some private information, some signal, that tells me the price should be different (either higher or lower). The fundamental question of trading is this: “How do I act on this signal?”

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 22 Feb 2021

      11/ What do we mean by signal? Again, let’s start at square 1. This is what a stock looks like:pic.twitter.com/hF8S8RbhxV

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 22 Feb 2021

      12/ BUT, this is what a stock looks like to a trader. The orange line is what the world (in aggregate) thinks it’s worth. The blue line is what *you* think it’s worth.pic.twitter.com/NsQ4BHHSdP

      1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 22 Feb 2021

      13/ What really matters is the difference between the two.pic.twitter.com/5XDBLCVmvO

      1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
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    5. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 22 Feb 2021

      14/ This is what prices look like to a trader. Most of the time they’re zero. But sometimes they’re not. An “entry”, in this way of thinking, is a disagreement with the world that’s “big enough to matter”.

      1 reply 0 retweets 25 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 22 Feb 2021

      15/ Ok, so we did a trade. Now what? I’ve made money in theory (known as Sklansky bucks in the poker world), but you can’t spend expected-value dollars. Unless you’re Adam Neumann or something. (I still marvel at what he was able to do.)

      1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
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    7. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 22 Feb 2021

      16/ In order to actualize your $, you need to close out your position. You need to “exit”. And this is the question. When do you exit?

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 22 Feb 2021

      17/ Fundamental concept #1: “All exits are *entries* into a different position.” Exits and entries are the same! This may sound vacuous but I assure you it’s not.

      2 replies 2 retweets 31 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 22 Feb 2021

      18/ It shows you that the trades (i.e. the actions you take) are important but secondary. The thing that matters most is the position. You get paid not for the trade, but rather for the position you hold. “What should my position be?” is the most important question to ask.

      1 reply 0 retweets 34 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 22 Feb 2021

      19/ So that’s where I want to stop for today. Trading is misnamed. It should be called positioning. I’ll come back tomorrow with some interesting things that follow from this shift in perspective.

      6 replies 0 retweets 53 likes
      Show this thread
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 22 Feb 2021
      Replying to @AgustinLebron3

      When I pitch I get questions like “what is your average holding period” or “how many trades do you have on at once”. Obviously I could calculate this, but it’s not how I think. My book is not a collection of trades, it’s a collection of *positions*. The trades are incidental.

      8:57 AM - 22 Feb 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 54 Likes
      • A Thought Thinking Itself Jack Yeh Robert Grzesik emily David Fitzpatrick njknlkjnl jstrauss twitecon Benn "DJ D-Vol" Eifert
      2 replies 1 retweet 54 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Kris‏ @KrisAbdelmessih 22 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @AgustinLebron3

          Exactly This was a good thread bc I took for granted that positioning was the only way to look at trades. We always just think in terms of "just throw it on the pile" not individual trades

          1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
        3. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 22 Feb 2021
          Replying to @KrisAbdelmessih @macrocephalopod

          I did too, until I started talking to more people who didn't necessarily get the training we received.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Damien Del Russo‏ @ddelruss 22 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @bennpeifert @AgustinLebron3

          So it's like the Kama Sutra. Interesting.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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