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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 21 Feb 2021

      macrocephalopod Retweeted Chairman Birb Bernanke

      Lot of investing idols coming out with absolute dogshit takes recently, revealing (a) they don't know what they're talking about (b) they are just irredeemably awful people.https://twitter.com/Bonecondor/status/1363616232973426696 …

      macrocephalopod added,

      Chairman Birb Bernanke @Bonecondor
      the weird thing about finance is that people end up worshiping these dudes that make a couple good trades, and go no further in examining their idolatry than “this dude made a lot of money”, completely ignoring in some cases how That Dude is just a total piece of shit
      Show this thread
      3 replies 1 retweet 32 likes
    2. Flaky Puff (Secretly Chinese)‏ @DecadentPuff 21 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      Every day I am left more and more convinced of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"'s central thesis: successful investors just happened to catch a lucky break and called a sequence of coin flips correctly.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 21 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DecadentPuff

      Definitely an appealing idea! Slight refinement -- plenty of investors are genuinely skilled at one thing (e.g. merger arb, value investing) but then get too famous, develop a god complex and end up waaaay outside of their wheelhouse, where they revert to coin flips.

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. Flaky Puff (Secretly Chinese)‏ @DecadentPuff 21 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      I think your theory might even be testable! If you can trawl through and build up a table of famous stock-pickers' historical positions (or views). You could then fit a regression pre-fame and post-fame and check if there's a discontinuity.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Flaky Puff (Secretly Chinese)‏ @DecadentPuff 21 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DecadentPuff @macrocephalopod

      Sorry not regression, there's no reason to expect a clear trendline. Just plot the a graph of returns - benchmark and post should have higher volatilitypic.twitter.com/eDYT6qM4hH

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 21 Feb 2021
      Replying to @DecadentPuff

      This is my kind of chart.

      3:34 PM - 21 Feb 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Flaky Puff (Secretly Chinese)‏ @DecadentPuff 21 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          MS Paint and Associates at your service

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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