Lot of investing idols coming out with absolute dogshit takes recently, revealing (a) they don't know what they're talking about (b) they are just irredeemably awful people.https://twitter.com/Bonecondor/status/1363616232973426696 …
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Every day I am left more and more convinced of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"'s central thesis: successful investors just happened to catch a lucky break and called a sequence of coin flips correctly.
Definitely an appealing idea! Slight refinement -- plenty of investors are genuinely skilled at one thing (e.g. merger arb, value investing) but then get too famous, develop a god complex and end up waaaay outside of their wheelhouse, where they revert to coin flips.
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I think your theory might even be testable! If you can trawl through and build up a table of famous stock-pickers' historical positions (or views). You could then fit a regression pre-fame and post-fame and check if there's a discontinuity.
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I know EDHEC keeps tabs on hedge funds but I don't know if there is a similar effort to monitor Buffet & co
End of conversation
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Or they chose the “right area” to get deep. Betting on a societal shift in one direction can mask any miscalculations at the firm-specific level. Cathie benefitted tremendously from macro narrative shift where on an individual equity basis, her top holding was weeks from BK
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