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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Andrew Chen‏ @achenfinance 18 Feb 2021

      Tom and I are still working on updating "open source asset pricing" (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3604626 …) 😓. We're working so hard because we not only replicate t>2.0 for almost all anomalies, but now even replicate the t-stats themselves! Preview below. Code + data will be free!pic.twitter.com/THm7EaeuAe

      2 replies 31 retweets 166 likes
    2. Guillaume Coqueret‏ @g_coqueret 18 Feb 2021
      Replying to @achenfinance

      Impressive! No replication crisis after all... maybe a double log-scale would ease the work of ggrepel(). If this creates confusion it’s always possible to add horizontal & vertical thresholds, eg at t=3.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 19 Feb 2021
      Replying to @g_coqueret @achenfinance

      this is clearly great work by @achenfinance but it doesn’t really impact on the replication crisis because this is afaik replicating studies using the same data, not generating new data and trying to replicate (as you would in eg a psychology replication)

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Guillaume Coqueret‏ @g_coqueret 19 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @achenfinance

      But I agree, the validity of asset pricing anomalies outside their original papers is far from being obvious. Several papers have documented that a large majority of them vanish when they are tested on new data or when minor changes are applied... *this* replication crisis holds.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Andrew Chen‏ @achenfinance 20 Feb 2021
      Replying to @g_coqueret @macrocephalopod

      Let’s not call published anomalies being traded away a crisis? I’d call that efficient markets. The (potential) crisis comes from Hou, Xue, Zhang’s; Harvey and Liu’s suggestion that academic papers are not credible. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s over.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Feb 2021
      Replying to @achenfinance @g_coqueret

      I guess the question is, if an anomaly disappears after a paper describing it is published, how do you tell the difference between it being arbed away vs never existing in the first place?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @achenfinance @g_coqueret

      I recall a paper which tried to account for this using three periods — the period studied in the paper, period after the last date studied but before publication, and the publication date onwards. Idea is that real effects would continue between study end date and publication

      8:30 AM - 20 Feb 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Alex Castaldo 卡亚立
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @achenfinance @g_coqueret

          whereas fake effects would disappear after the end of the period studied. Unfortunately I can’t remember the title, authors or conclusions!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Guillaume Coqueret‏ @g_coqueret 20 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @achenfinance

          I think it could be this one: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12365 …

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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