love this thread, would argue that due to market-participant behavior, this justifies things like UST, gold, JGBs. you dont have to hold assets forever, see also: time to first exit. you can model n period forward returns but should also model min/max return in the interimhttps://twitter.com/bennpeifert/status/1362908508237090816 …
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i do this stuff on broadly diversified indices, yea what you mention matters, but its kinda diff because calls are covered so its really a left tail risk (which does happen)?
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what i am selling options on, is ultimately, my willingness to change my mind in the option term. and yeah, it can bite-back, but everything is a trade-off. i have plenty of regrets, but none of them blew me up and i dont even remember the ones that paid off tbh. its weird.
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