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love this thread, would argue that due to market-participant behavior, this justifies things like UST, gold, JGBs. you dont have to hold assets forever, see also: time to first exit. you can model n period forward returns but should also model min/max return in the interimhttps://twitter.com/bennpeifert/status/1362908508237090816 …
Does this also help explain why you shouldn’t sell top strike call options on a stock in the middle of a once in a generation short squeeze even if you think they’ll expire in the money?
Max gain: $9.80 Max loss: unlimited Realized max drawdown: about $1000 Please help me budget this my family is dying
i do this stuff on broadly diversified indices, yea what you mention matters, but its kinda diff because calls are covered so its really a left tail risk (which does happen)?
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