I'm not sure what the point of "relative ownership" is. The question is: do bigger companies get more money due to size, rather than expectation of profit? And does this more money create larger price, which necessarily draws more money, etc, ad infinitium. (Until they don't.)
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Replying to @PelopsWar @macrocephalopod and
If a fund buys 40 shares of AAPL at $129/shr and only 4 shares of Juniper Networks at $24 apiece, it does not necessarily mean more momentum or price impact on AAPL. If it happens repeatedly, for years, it will mean more impact on JNPR because of relative float differences,
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Replying to @bauhiniacapital @PelopsWar and
Except the fund would have to buy 211 shares of AAPL vs 4 shares of JNPR. AAPL is ~10x10 on the screens (obviously more depth can be tapped) while JNPR is perversely 15x15. Impact on AAPL almost certainly higher.
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Replying to @profplum99 @PelopsWar and
I expect you’d be of the opinion that if a fund bought 100k AAPL and 75k JNPR every day for a couple of years, the imbalance would be felt the other way (i.e. more impact on JNPR) eventually, despite what shows on the screens and the lop-sided dollar amount.
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Replying to @profplum99 @PelopsWar and
So then the only question is how does one calculate where the break-even impact is between two stocks in dollars, % of float, gross positioning of active, and the on-screen BBO.
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Replying to @bauhiniacapital @PelopsWar and
Far from only question, but directionally yes. As I've noted elsewhere, "It's complicated"
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Replying to @profplum99 @PelopsWar and
I’ll agree with that as I too have said, but I do believe over time it’s closer to relative percentage of float being purchased by price-insensitive buyers than it is absolute dollars. And over the space of a day or five, there’s likely an ADV/float factor which plays a role.
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Replying to @bauhiniacapital @profplum99 and
If more of the float is being purchased by price insensitive buyers, does it not have a momo effect? Ex: Tesla keeps going up, price-sensitive buyers leave, and a larger percent of the trades in that name are made by index funds/Ken Griffin, thus reifying inflated prices
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Replying to @K_is_silent @bauhiniacapital and
No, by definition if 40% of the holders of SPX are passive, they own 40% of the free float of every stock in the index. If active investors sell TSLA stock they must be selling it to other active investors (assuming the index passive ownership share remains the same).
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Obviously if passive share of the index is increasing it means that active investors are selling to passive investors (or more likely active investors are *becoming* passive) but that happens equally for all stocks in the index, doesn’t favour TSLA or any other stock.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @K_is_silent and
I may not understand your perspective here. If Vanguard fund owns X shares of company Y; and Vanguard fund gets more money each month to invest per weight; are you saying that new money goes to buy N shares (so Vanguard now has X+N)? Or does Vanguard still have only X shares?
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Replying to @PelopsWar @macrocephalopod and
Think relative. If Vanguard gets an inflow of 1% of the market cap of the S&P500, then it buys 1% of the market cap of each stock.
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