macrocephalopod

The Virgin VIX call buyer seeks to have a smooth PnL, and is concerned with keeping his day-to-day portfolio variance below a certain level. The Chad SPX put buyer wants an instrument that limits his max loss so he can lever up his exposure and achieve sweet geometric returns.

I need to rerun the analysis and see if there are any consistent SPYsignals that help you spot when UVXY is most likely to spike. Testing will need to be more precise than distributions, need to see if betting on the signals would work. Then, you know when2hedg, try2avoid decay

Lmao Mitch I love you and you are smart as they come.... but what you are trying to do is what all of us vol traders have been trying to do for years If that could truly be accurately optimized, we would have the true special sauce

haha tru the way I phrased that was super unrealistic... Im just curious if there are any halfway decent signals, maybe they can at least increase the odds of a hedge working, tho need know the implied prob of a spike based onUVXYcallPrices vs the signal. I lack dataOnFormer

I have wondered this myself but I would note that the Universa and Taleb's would say it's a fool's errand to try timing events that are, by definition, statistically rare. Being highly rare is part of what makes a black swan a black swan. Therefore, always be hedged.

Yes, but losing over what time frame? Annually, in most years, of course. But if the goal is to avoid large draw downs that kill LT CAGR, it's another way to cut off the tails. Not so different than owning gold and bonds as hedges, which will be portfolio drags in some years.