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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @Ksidiii

      sell for a profit (at the higher-than-NAV price). The AP activity (buying VIX futs, selling UVXY) pushes up the prices of VIX futures and pushes down the price of UVXY but because UVXY started off at a premium, the net effect is that the prices of both VIX futures and

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @Ksidiii

      UVXY are higher than they were before the process started. Demand for ETN shares pushes up the price of the constituents in exactly the same way that demand for ETF shares pushes up the price of the constituents (or demand for stocks increases stock prices etc)

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    3. Kris Sidial‏ @Ksidiii 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      Few things, the share creation process doesn’t make this as reflexive, the APs soaking to move it to the value kinda stops that dynamic + APs aren’t forced to keep that matched book the same way MMs are. It’s a completely different dynamic.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @Ksidiii

      Just think about what happens when 1 unit of UVXY is bought and you go through an AP share creation cycle. The original purchase of UVXY nets out because the AP sells a share, so no impact there. You are left with a purchase of 1.5x VIX futures, that is what causes px to go up.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Kris Sidial‏ @Ksidiii 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      The APs don’t have to necessarily keep a matched book so that VX future being bought isn’t a guarantee... ya know. On top of that the APs are going against the prevailing price (if demand is high they are coming to force this down).... + share creation dilutes the reflexivity

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    6. Kris Sidial‏ @Ksidiii 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @Ksidiii @macrocephalopod

      This process isn’t really a cascading gamma effect the way how a supply & demand driven asset that needs to be hedged by MMs generally operate, ya know. That IV price is really the goal of the AP, which isn’t bound to the strongholds or keeping a pure “matched book”

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    7. Mitchell Rosenthal‏ @M1tchRosenthal 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @Ksidiii @macrocephalopod

      learning a lot here, anything you suggest reading to learn more about authorized participants for these types of products?

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    8. Kris Sidial‏ @Ksidiii 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @M1tchRosenthal @macrocephalopod

      Uhhhh i don’t know anything off the top of my head besides Vance’s work...(which I’m a fan of) He talks about this process a bit here https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/3012686-how-does-uvxy-work …

      1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
    9. Mitchell Rosenthal‏ @M1tchRosenthal 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @Ksidiii @macrocephalopod

      This is perfect!

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Zackery Parker 🦄‏ @mistman78 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @M1tchRosenthal @Ksidiii @macrocephalopod

      I asked Cem his opinion if a Gamma Squeeze was possible FWIW- "Given the right order type and size at the right time...absolutely. It’s happened before. That said, UVXY is not the most effective place to attack, margin/convexity tails in SPX and VIX drive max leverage."

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @mistman78 @M1tchRosenthal @Ksidiii

      @Ksidiii can you explain what you mean by a “matched book”? You mean a book where each UVXY share held long or short by APs is offset with the matching amount of VIX futures?

      5:46 AM - 13 Feb 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. onceuponabluemoon‏ @enymarra 13 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @mistman78 and

          If you don't mind explaining, I thought the XIV blowup of 2018 was because weight of retail buying (at its peak XIV and SVXY were 4b in AUM) had caused the beta of the VIX to morph relative to the SPX. Hence a 4% drop in S&P caused a 20x spike. Why wouldn't the reverse be true?

          1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Feb 2021
          Replying to @enymarra @mistman78 and

          The XIV blowup was self-reinforcing. Vol had been compressed by huge interest in vol selling (high AUM in inverse VIX ETNs) so a small absolute increase in VIX represented a large % in crease, which meant a large loss for XIV. It was then compounded because XIV was looking at

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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