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macrocephalopod's profile
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@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Overlevered Asset Management‏ @Overlevered_AM 12 Feb 2021

      @bennpeifert @goodalexander @Ksidiii @VolQuant @M1tchRosenthal what is the best product that claims to track the VIX? I know that some of these products are filled with nonsense and create lots if noise. Plz, advise. #overlevered

      4 replies 4 retweets 9 likes
    2. harmless.exe‏ @harmless_exe 12 Feb 2021
      Replying to @Overlevered_AM @bennpeifert and

      What’s the argument against vxx?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Feb 2021
      Replying to @harmless_exe @Overlevered_AM and

      1. It tracks 1 month VIX futures, not VIX 2. It has a pretty brutal rolldown, if you hold it for long enough you are basically guaranteed to lose money

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. harmless.exe‏ @harmless_exe 12 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @Overlevered_AM and

      Fair enough. If I want to be long vol and treat as “cost of doing business”, am I better off buying vix monthly calls vs owning vxx?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @harmless_exe @Overlevered_AM and

      Not particularly. To a first approximation everything that gives you long vol exposure has a horrible drag on P&L (if there was an easy way to be long vol with less drag you would just do that and be short vol some other way, capturing the difference in drifts).

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @harmless_exe and

      If you want some constant long vol exposure you could buy VXX, short SPY, buy VXX monthly calls and roll them, buy UVXY calls and roll them, buy SPX puts etc. You’ll do well in a crash but lose money over the long run.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @harmless_exe and

      There’s an interesting argument that buying *really* out of the money puts on SPY is a net benefit if you also own SPY because it cuts off the tails that really hurt your compound growth rate — this is essentially what tail risk funds like Universa are trying to do.

      12:05 AM - 13 Feb 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 20 Likes
      • PJ Pierre ol’ McFun Fred Gambler KA jsz Matt Hollerbach NAV (NetAssetValue) sarao Robot James 🤖🏖
      5 replies 1 retweet 20 likes
        1. harmless.exe‏ @harmless_exe 13 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @Overlevered_AM and

          Also, i would have assumed everyone was buying otm spy puts after march 2020 but maybe i arrived at this naively myself. It just seems obvious and cheap.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. Ben Smith‏ @smithbenjamin84 13 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @harmless_exe and

          This is an interesting argument that @breakingthemark has written a lot about. In the end it boils down to what maximising geometric return.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 13 Feb 2021
          Replying to @smithbenjamin84 @harmless_exe and

          Have not seen their posts about that, will try and find them. Appreciate a link if you have one!

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. SqueezeMetrics‏ @SqueezeMetrics 13 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @harmless_exe and

          The Virgin VIX call buyer seeks to have a smooth PnL, and is concerned with keeping his day-to-day portfolio variance below a certain level. The Chad SPX put buyer wants an instrument that limits his max loss so he can lever up his exposure and achieve sweet geometric returns.

          4 replies 1 retweet 29 likes
        3. Alex Good‏ @goodalexander 13 Feb 2021
          Replying to @SqueezeMetrics @macrocephalopod and

          The Non Binary Phantasm simply shorts all forms of poorly priced risk premia in markets/relationships where operators are incentivized to sell tails to clip annual bonuses

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Iavor Botev‏ @iavorbotev 14 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @therobotjames and

          Cutting the left tail off is important indeed. My favourite way of doing it is with put spreads where you eliminate the left tail at the cost of more volatility ATM.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Overlevered Asset Management‏ @Overlevered_AM 14 Feb 2021
          Replying to @iavorbotev @macrocephalopod and

          That's a cool take on things Iavor

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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