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@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

      A wrong belief that many otherwise smart people have is that index funds are “momentum investors” i.e. they mechanically buy more as prices rise and sell when prices fall (example from Bill Ackman’s 2015 investor letter below and I saw this *twice* in unrelated threads today).pic.twitter.com/rntUJjob2V

      21 replies 41 retweets 270 likes
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    2. Manuel Lara‏ @manuelvlara 11 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @nope_its_lily

      But they do trade every day when they get inflows and outflows no?

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021
      Replying to @manuelvlara @nope_its_lily

      Yes absolutely (or an AP trades for them) and I should have mentioned it in my list of reasons that index funds trade. But this is very different to arguing that index funds are forced to trade purely because of price movements.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. sathoro‏ @sathoro_ 11 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @manuelvlara @nope_its_lily

      When they get an inflow and have to purchase, they are proportionally buying more of the larger companies. So that does create some momentum, no?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021
      Replying to @sathoro_ @manuelvlara @nope_its_lily

      Only if you think that larger companies are less liquid (hence more subject to price impact) than their market cap implies *and* that flows are positive (in the case of outflows the larger companies would suffer bigger drops which would create reversion, not momentum)

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    6. sathoro‏ @sathoro_ 11 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @manuelvlara @nope_its_lily

      They don't have to be less liquid, they just have to have the same amount of liquidity relative to the other holdings right? If liquidity is proportional to market cap and flows are positive, it seems like there could be momentum.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021
      Replying to @sathoro_ @manuelvlara @nope_its_lily

      If all stocks in the index equally liquid then inflows wd not create any *relative* price impact so there wd be no *relative* momentum (although of course all stocks in the index wd rise, by roughly the same amount, so there would be absolute momentum if price rises beget flows)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. sathoro‏ @sathoro_ 11 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @manuelvlara @nope_its_lily

      Okay so you're saying a company valued 2x more would take 2x more capital to raise the price by X%, and so it evens out when there are inflows? I could buy that

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021
      Replying to @sathoro_ @manuelvlara @nope_its_lily

      Yeah that’s my first order claim (obviously there will be some variation and special cases but this is basically accurate for most stocks)

      3:24 PM - 11 Feb 2021
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. sathoro‏ @sathoro_ 11 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @manuelvlara @nope_its_lily

          Btw zooming back out a bit, I think some people call some "passive" funds momentum based is because they inherently sell the losers and buy winners. You don't see bankrupt companies as a SPY holding :) But it's a limited amount of momentum as you bring up well.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Kshitij Vashi‏ @K_is_silent 11 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @sathoro_ and

          Yeah but all the distorting anomalies (GME) usually are in low liquidity stocks

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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