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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

      A wrong belief that many otherwise smart people have is that index funds are “momentum investors” i.e. they mechanically buy more as prices rise and sell when prices fall (example from Bill Ackman’s 2015 investor letter below and I saw this *twice* in unrelated threads today).pic.twitter.com/rntUJjob2V

      21 replies 41 retweets 270 likes
      Show this thread
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

      This is not true! A really basic cap-weighted index fund mechanic is that they automatically track the index as prices move, with no trading required. This is literally the reason that they are called *passive* funds.

      2:11 PM - 11 Feb 2021
      • 6 Retweets
      • 87 Likes
      • Art Robiso George Pearkes SEN ConvexityCap Vanck r u a pirate As12 Denby Windsor CLOUD
      7 replies 6 retweets 87 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

          For some reason this breaks people’s intuitions and they get really excited about forced buying/selling from passive funds creating positive/negative feedback loops, which, I cannot emphasise enough, is not a thing that actually happens except in retail brain fantasies.

          5 replies 4 retweets 73 likes
          Show this thread
        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

          Index funds do need to trade, but only on a few specific events - mainly index adds/deletes and corporate actions (e.g. new issuance, buybacks, mergers and acquisitions).

          4 replies 3 retweets 44 likes
          Show this thread
        4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

          There’s a whole exciting thread about *index rebalance* trades which I hope to write about one day but that is entirely separate to the day to say mechanics of index fund management, which is largely very boring and consists of making sure you are correctly

          2 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
          Show this thread
        5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

          tracking corporate actions for the index constituents. Fin.

          4 replies 0 retweets 24 likes
          Show this thread
        6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

          An important addendum is that index funds also trade when they have inflows and outflows (or an AP trades on behalf of an ETF using the create/redeem mechanism). This is important but orthogonal to the main point, which is that index funds basically never trade on price alone

          3 replies 1 retweet 30 likes
          Show this thread
        7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021

          macrocephalopod Retweeted baufinanciaphaster  👹

          I just realized that @bauhiniacapital wrote about this way more eloquently and also ~5 hours earlier here —https://twitter.com/bauhiniacapital/status/1359919232062873603 …

          macrocephalopod added,

          baufinanciaphaster  👹 @bauhiniacapital
          Carson Block of @muddywatersre writing in the FT lays the blame of stonk gyrations like GameStop (sub $20 on 12 Jan, up 18-fold in 10 trading days) squarely on low rates and passive investing. This is Hogwash, Blatherskite, Buncombe, and Taradiddle. https://www.ft.com/content/dbfc69df-7dbc-4338-a475-1432ffdc4056 …
          Show this thread
          1 reply 3 retweets 29 likes
          Show this thread
        8. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 12 Feb 2021

          macrocephalopod Retweeted

          This thread is a great example of the incredible broken brain gymnastics that people will perform to to misunderstand how index funds work and how they impact prices. Not matter how hard I try to explain it, he keeps repeating the same meaningless point I give up! https://twitter.com/whirlybard/status/1360334892236607489 …

          macrocephalopod added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          4 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
          Show this thread
        9. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Mitchell Rosenthal‏ @M1tchRosenthal 11 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          Interesting, could you elaborate a bit? So if one component rises and becomes a larger part of the index, are you saying, the fund doesn't have to buy more, bc it already owned that component, and when it rises, the funds' exposure to it rises too, so no need 2 adjust?

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021
          Replying to @M1tchRosenthal

          Yes, this is exactly correct!

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Jave Galt-Miller‏ @PelopsWar 11 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod

          Knowing nothing about this, but having listened to a lot of @profplum99, when you say "track the index", what does this mean? Let's take VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market) - I put $100 into VTI: what does Vanguard do w/that money? How is it spent?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 11 Feb 2021
          Replying to @PelopsWar @profplum99

          They buy all the stocks in the index in proportion to their weight.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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