$TSLA am not an expert on shorting stocks, just your average Joe with a Casio calculator. But for the 1st time ever, the time looks ripe for a short. Let me elaborate. To start, if you read my previous post, it established a troubling fact pattern that is a good premise. (1/N)
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Replying to @INArteCarloDoss
Help me understand the passive selling argument. If Tesla share price falls it will have a lower weight in the index, but it falls as a proportion of existing passive fund holdings as well, in exactly the right proportions ... so why would they need to sell?
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Replying to @macrocephalopod
If we consider ETFs that do sampling in their replication process- as the weight in the index decreases, the stock will contribute less to the tracking error, hence ETFs might as well get rid of it But if we consider full physical replication I don't see how you could be wrong..
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Replying to @Teckk_
I see, you mean a fund that deliberately doesn’t track its index like iShares R2k vs SPDR R2k? Yeah that could have an impact for some small stocks. But most large cap index funds try for perfect replication, and TSLA is one of the biggest stocks in the index!
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @Teckk_
What I am getting from this is that the “passive funds will need to sell if the price falls” argument does not work. At all.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod
Only way to make the argument work to me is if you consider imperfect replication, and the more the price falls the less interesting it is to own the stock (I think that's in this context that @alexharfouche1 refers to a convex effect)
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Replying to @Teckk_ @macrocephalopod
-by imperfect I mean "sampling" obviously
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I mean I agree that if TSLA starts falling in price there will probably be a momentum effect as it becomes less interesting for *active* traders to hold it. But this has nothing to do with passive funds, who will continue holding regardless.
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