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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 10 Feb 2021

      BTC has higher vol than S&P obv -> BTC is now x% of TSLA -> TSLA vol likely increases -> ivol & hvol should increase on SPX

      7 replies 1 retweet 44 likes
      Show this thread
    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 Feb 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily

      BTC is like ... 4% of Tesla's balance sheet (or 0.2% of its market cap) and Tesla is 1.6% of SPX, I am not convinced it is going to move the needle.

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. This Tweet is unavailable.
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 Feb 2021
      Replying to @CautionPesimism @nope_its_lily

      BTC holdings are ~68% of balance sheet, ~34% of market cap, and MSTR is 0% of SPX

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 10 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @CautionPesimism

      Sure, but BTC is down 4% today and MSTR is down 21% today.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 10 Feb 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily @macrocephalopod @CautionPesimism

      Again it's way too new on Tesla to even make a correlation trend, but it wouldn't be farfetched to assume that investors on meme stocks react strongly to hints of a BTC drop.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 Feb 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily @CautionPesimism

      I would definitely look for interesting BTC/MSTR pair trades!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 10 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @CautionPesimism

      I think @coloradotravis tried shorting MSTR a while ago.

      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    9. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 Feb 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily @CautionPesimism @coloradotravis

      My point is that this is such a tiny fraction of SPX that it still won't matter. If we say that the BTC portion of TSLA balance sheet trades like BTC but with 10x the vol due to some meme leverage effect, it would increase SPX volatility from ... 20% to 20.01%

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 10 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @CautionPesimism @coloradotravis

      Definitely not disputing your math here. I didn't run any calcs, I just made inferences about what *could* happen.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 Feb 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily @CautionPesimism @coloradotravis

      ~*~ ✨m * a * t * h * !✨ ~*~

      8:28 AM - 10 Feb 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 10 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @CautionPesimism @coloradotravis

          did you factor in the Elon Musk Risk Premium (EMRP) which means times it by 1000x.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 10 Feb 2021
          Replying to @nope_its_lily @CautionPesimism @coloradotravis

          I did not! In that case I expect SPX vol to immediately go to 72%, brb buying options

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          3. End of conversation

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