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macrocephalopod's profile
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@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Corey Hoffstein  🏴‍☠️‏Verified account @choffstein 8 Feb 2021

      Corey Hoffstein  🏴‍☠️ Retweeted Agustin Lebron

      I “discovered” this idea of variance clock time back when I was 20 and found that returns/volatility ≈ normally distributed. Trend following applied on a variance clock, not a wall clock, was the first model I really built. I wrote a bit more here: https://blog.thinknewfound.com/2019/03/time-dilation/ …https://twitter.com/AgustinLebron3/status/1358793444412428288 …

      Corey Hoffstein  🏴‍☠️ added,

      Agustin Lebron @AgustinLebron3
      3/ Let’s start by talking about time. Time is surprisingly hard to think about. But why do we care? Well, as we said in Options 101, we want to convert our options prices into vols because of #reasons. And to do so, you need to know t_exp.
      Show this thread
      8 replies 9 retweets 105 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 8 Feb 2021
      Replying to @choffstein

      returns / vol = N(mu,sigma) is one of the most important insights one can have about trading.

      1 reply 4 retweets 31 likes
    3. Kris‏ @KrisAbdelmessih 8 Feb 2021
      Replying to @AgustinLebron3 @choffstein

      literally one of the first column i put in a dashboard next to "return"

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 8 Feb 2021
      Replying to @KrisAbdelmessih @AgustinLebron3 @choffstein

      I would say returns/vol ~ t(mu, sigma, v) but otherwise more or less agree!

      1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
    5. Agustin Lebron‏ @AgustinLebron3 8 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @KrisAbdelmessih @choffstein

      ☝️

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Freak0naut‏ @FREAK0NAUT 8 Feb 2021
      Replying to @AgustinLebron3 @macrocephalopod and

      https://twitter.com/FREAK0NAUT/status/1337904932536586241 …pic.twitter.com/BjQRx1mmpl

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 8 Feb 2021
      Replying to @FREAK0NAUT @AgustinLebron3 and

      I'm not sure what you're getting at. The pages you posted are describing volatility drag (in particular how you can overcome it with diversification and proper bet sizing). What's the relevance?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Freak0naut‏ @FREAK0NAUT 8 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @AgustinLebron3 and

      that's not what those are describing. Shannon was specifically trying to find the most volatile stock so that he could rebalance the portfolio more frequency. and in that example the returns are stationary the whole portfolio is capturing vol, there's nothing to drag

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 8 Feb 2021
      Replying to @FREAK0NAUT @AgustinLebron3 and

      Of course there is. The stock has expected arithmetic return of 75% and expected geometric return of 0. Vol drag is the difference. By using less leverage and rebalancing you get closer to the arithmetic return (because you halve the vol drag)

      12:08 PM - 8 Feb 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • SumTrader Robot James 🤖🏖
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 8 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @FREAK0NAUT and

          It looks like magic because the example uses a very contrived distribution of returns, but it’s the exact same principle behind why buying a stock index has positive returns even though buying a single stock will likely make you go broke.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Freak0naut‏ @FREAK0NAUT 8 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @AgustinLebron3 and

          it's not a theoretical exercise.... https://twitter.com/goodalexander/status/1344890314792734722 …pic.twitter.com/QKeZeA2h5x

          2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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