I don’t know who needs to hear this but variance is a convex function of volatility and Jensen’s inequality implies that your chart comparing spot VIX to trailing realized vol is bullshit.
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All of this can be boiled down to “VIX tends to track 1m 90% IV, not 1m 100% IV”
No, the premium depends on the shape of the smile, and hence on implied vol of vol. it’s not a constant premium.
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Yeah 2nd point was an oversimplification for sure but find it helpful to illustrate how to think of the VIX for newbies. A good rule of thumb approximation
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