I don’t know who needs to hear this but variance is a convex function of volatility and Jensen’s inequality implies that your chart comparing spot VIX to trailing realized vol is bullshit.
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Is VRP a lie
No but you should compare ATM implied vol to your forecast of realized vol. VIX includes a premium for the convexity of variance which means it is always larger than ATM vol.
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Put another way. The implied volatility of otm options is higher than atm options because you get paid(or get to demand) extra fir selling tail protection. And since VIX is (more or less) a weighted average of implied vols, these bias it higher than atm vol.
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