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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 5 Feb 2021

      If someone talks up a trading strategy/signal/indicator/whatever by talking about it’s win rate (% of profitable trades) then huge alarm bells should be going off.

      1 reply 2 retweets 26 likes
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    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 5 Feb 2021

      Expected profit from any strategy is E(pnl) = P(win) x E(pnl|win) + P(loss) x E(pnl|loss) — the win rate P(win) is one factor but the expected PnL conditional on a winning vs losing trade is equally if not more important (also much harder to estimate).

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 5 Feb 2021

      It’s trivially easy to construct a strategy with a high win rate. Just trade randomly and set a tight take profit and a loose stop loss. Your win rate will be high (at least 70%) but your losses on the 30% losing trades will more than cancel out the gains on the winning trades.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 5 Feb 2021

      The corollary is that someone who only talks about the win rate of the strategy/indicator is probably hiding something about the distribution of PnL.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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    5. NRI Inc‏ @NewRiverInvest 5 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      show all p&l or GTFO, a good rule to have

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Wacek Godycki‏ @WacekG 5 Feb 2021
      Replying to @NewRiverInvest @macrocephalopod

      Good reminder. What is meaningful time interval to look at PnL. Monthly? Daily? Per trade?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 5 Feb 2021
      Replying to @WacekG @NewRiverInvest

      As granular as you can get, ideally. Per trade is best if the holding period is < 1 day, otherwise daily is probably fine.

      9:28 AM - 5 Feb 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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