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If someone talks up a trading strategy/signal/indicator/whatever by talking about it’s win rate (% of profitable trades) then huge alarm bells should be going off.
Expected profit from any strategy is E(pnl) = P(win) x E(pnl|win) + P(loss) x E(pnl|loss) — the win rate P(win) is one factor but the expected PnL conditional on a winning vs losing trade is equally if not more important (also much harder to estimate).
It’s trivially easy to construct a strategy with a high win rate. Just trade randomly and set a tight take profit and a loose stop loss. Your win rate will be high (at least 70%) but your losses on the 30% losing trades will more than cancel out the gains on the winning trades.
The corollary is that someone who only talks about the win rate of the strategy/indicator is probably hiding something about the distribution of PnL.
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