Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

Tweets

macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

Tweets

  • © 2022 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

      macrocephalopod Retweeted macrocephalopod

      "But 'ceph you made a big deal of introducing this with a concrete example and didn't say anything about how the hedge fund would use this to make money." Okay, fair point. Let's go!https://twitter.com/macrocephalopod/status/1356731277337108482?s=20 …

      macrocephalopod added,

      macrocephalopod @macrocephalopod
      A few people in the DMs asking about equity factor models so here's a short explainer. Let's make it a concrete problem -- you are the risk manager at a big multi-manager hedge fund with ~100 sub-PMs each of whom has a portfolio of 10-50 stocks, long and short.
      Show this thread
      3 replies 10 retweets 68 likes
      Show this thread
    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

      You're on the executive committee at a $10bn hedge fund with a 10% annual vol budget. You've hired 100 long/short sub-PMs to manage money for the fund, each running a concentrated portfolio of 20-50 stocks.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

      For reasons well explained by @quantian1 in the latest @trashfuturepod, despite being nominally completely independent, the PMs will end up doing similar things. They read the same research, speak to the same analysts, and have broadly similar education and outlook.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

      In particular there are certain kinds of positions that they love to get into -- buying stocks that have been going up, that have been recently upgraded by analysts, where sentiment is very positive etc. More mechanically they will end up taking positions in highly shorted ...

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

      stocks (a boring truism because the way that stocks become highly shorted is that lots of hedge fund PMs think it's a good idea to short them). These are your factor exposures.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

      Some of the factors (e.g. momentum, short interest) are quite "crashy" and will lead to large simultaneous drawdowns across all PMs at the same time -- something you *really* want to avoid because you are a hedge fund so you are levered up to your eyeballs.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

      The PMs do have skill though! Their individual stock picks are pretty good, it's just that they come with all this factor exposure which (a) is not well compensated given the risk (b) causes the PMs to be more correlated with each other than you'd like.

      2:12 PM - 3 Feb 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • Phil Gary
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

          What do you do? You build a factor model and use it to hedge out as much of the factor risk as you can. Specifically, you want to find stocks that are not held by many PMs but have similar factor exposures to the stocks they do hold, and use them to hedge the factor risk.

          1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
          Show this thread
        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

          This costs, both in t-costs to adjust the hedge and because the hedge is short factors with positive expected return -- but it reduces the volatility of the portfolio by more than it reduces the return, so the Sharpe improves and you can apply leverage to juice the return.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

          To put numbers on it say you have 100 PMs each of whom has a Sharpe of 0.7 and they are on average 25% correlated with each other because of all the factor exposure. You can apply 2x leverage and give each PM $200m to manage, for 10% vol and an expected return of 14%

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

          If you hedge the factor exposure you might get that correlation down to 10%. Now you get more diversification so you can lever up 3x and give each PM $300m to manage. Your vol is still 10% but now your expected return is 21%. It might cost you 2% to implement the hedge, but

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

          you have still increased the expected return from 14% to 19% and increased the expected Sharpe for the fund (before fees) from 1.4 to 1.9

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 3 Feb 2021

          Anyway that is (part of) how Citadel/Millennium/Point72 are able to make money so consistently, I hope you enjoyed it, please smash that like button etc etc.

          1 reply 0 retweets 36 likes
          Show this thread
        8. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2022 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info