Now you have a set of linear equations on each day, and you can solve the linear equations to get the vector of factor returns for each day using the normal equation -pic.twitter.com/YwVkUzSM69
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Now you have a set of linear equations on each day, and you can solve the linear equations to get the vector of factor returns for each day using the normal equation -pic.twitter.com/YwVkUzSM69
What's the point of this? The factor models tells you how the covariance matrix of stocks is related to the covariance matrix of factors - it's the sum of the covariance due to factor exposures - Σ_f - and the covariance of the residuals Ω which is normally assumed to be diagonalpic.twitter.com/H7ruwNaEtR
Now instead of estimating the ~2 million parameters of a 2000 x 2000 stock covariance matrix, you just need to estimate ~800 parameters of a 40 x 40 factor covariance matrix -- your risk model just got a whole lot simpler.
Even more interestingly, if you are not just a risk manager but a quant equity pm, you can take expectations and get a model for the expected return (or alpha) of each stock in terms of the expected returns on each factor --pic.twitter.com/JflXE3Qj8V
If you're doing this you would normally treat some factors as "risk" factors which have zero expectation (i.e. you want to hedge them to minimise risk) and some factors as "alpha" factors which have positive expectation, as well as risk --
you want exposure to the alpha factors, but you want *more* exposure to the ones which have higher expected return given the risk, and your factor model gives you a structured way to express that.
The vector of alphas, and the stock covariance matrix, are the key inputs to a portfolio optimizer (along with transaction costs, financing costs, position and turnover constraints, risk constraints etc). One particularly important fact is that portfolio optimizers are
known to behave *really* badly (recommending nonsense portfolios) when there is noise in the covariance matrix. You get noise when you try to estimate too many parameters from too little data, so using a factor model to reduce the number of parameters to estimate
is a critical step to take before you even consider using a portfolio optimizer (or some other method of reducing noise, but a factor model is the most common).
Lots of directions to take this but I think that's enough for now. There are many others who know a lot about this -- let me know if I missed anything important @choffstein @alphaarchitect @CliffordAsness?
macrocephalopod Retweeted macrocephalopod
I answered some follow-up questions herehttps://twitter.com/macrocephalopod/status/1356915582050979841?s=20 …
macrocephalopod added,
macrocephalopod Retweeted macrocephalopod
And more on how this might be used at a big multi-manager "pod shop" hedge fund here --https://twitter.com/macrocephalopod/status/1357089641548111872?s=20 …
macrocephalopod added,
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