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macrocephalopod
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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 2 Feb 2021

      Now instead of estimating the ~2 million parameters of a 2000 x 2000 stock covariance matrix, you just need to estimate ~800 parameters of a 40 x 40 factor covariance matrix -- your risk model just got a whole lot simpler.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 2 Feb 2021

      Even more interestingly, if you are not just a risk manager but a quant equity pm, you can take expectations and get a model for the expected return (or alpha) of each stock in terms of the expected returns on each factor --pic.twitter.com/JflXE3Qj8V

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 2 Feb 2021

      If you're doing this you would normally treat some factors as "risk" factors which have zero expectation (i.e. you want to hedge them to minimise risk) and some factors as "alpha" factors which have positive expectation, as well as risk --

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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    4. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 2 Feb 2021

      you want exposure to the alpha factors, but you want *more* exposure to the ones which have higher expected return given the risk, and your factor model gives you a structured way to express that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 2 Feb 2021

      The vector of alphas, and the stock covariance matrix, are the key inputs to a portfolio optimizer (along with transaction costs, financing costs, position and turnover constraints, risk constraints etc). One particularly important fact is that portfolio optimizers are

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 2 Feb 2021

      known to behave *really* badly (recommending nonsense portfolios) when there is noise in the covariance matrix. You get noise when you try to estimate too many parameters from too little data, so using a factor model to reduce the number of parameters to estimate

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 2 Feb 2021

      is a critical step to take before you even consider using a portfolio optimizer (or some other method of reducing noise, but a factor model is the most common).

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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    8. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 2 Feb 2021

      Lots of directions to take this but I think that's enough for now. There are many others who know a lot about this -- let me know if I missed anything important @choffstein @alphaarchitect @CliffordAsness?

      4 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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    10. Corey Hoffstein  🏴‍☠️‏Verified account @choffstein 2 Feb 2021
      Replying to @mediocrequant @macrocephalopod and

      The Barra crowding effect

      3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 2 Feb 2021
      Replying to @choffstein @mediocrequant and

      True + very good point. I'd only note that you can explain cross-sectional variance with factors before Barra, Axioma et al were widely used (even before they existed!) and even totally proprietary factors that we come up with in house often help explain risk

      3:29 PM - 2 Feb 2021
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      • BlankName stevenbraun.eth
      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. Dog Fund Advisors‏ @DogFundAdvisors 2 Feb 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @choffstein and

          With an inhouse factor model it is tough to buy an off the shelf factor model because of a factor alignment problem. If you have a momentum, value, quality alpha model but only momentum and value in your risk model, when you optimize you will get much more quality exposure.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 2 Feb 2021
          Replying to @DogFundAdvisors @choffstein and

          Yes! Not mentioned above but it is CRITICALLY IMPORTANT that all of your alphas are in the risk model — otherwise the optimizer loads up on them because it looks like risk-free alpha.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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