Oh look, gold and platinum are also rallying with silver. I wonder why.
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Replying to @nope_its_lily
Do you think it might be because {gold, silver, platinum, palladium} are *always* correlated with each other on account of being driven by very similar macro factors? It would be a much bigger story if they were moving in opposite directions.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @nope_its_lily
Gold was up on 82% of days that silver was up over the last ten years. Platinum up on 74% of days that silver was up, palladium up on 70% of days that silver was up. This is not "memetics" it is plain boring old correlation.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod
Err calling it a correlation doesn’t explain any causal factors of why they correlate. In this case do you think macro factors drove gold and platinum?
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Replying to @macrocephalopod
What factors drove it today except
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Replying to @nope_its_lily
Real yields, inflation expectations, US dollar? A simple 4-factor model for gold return implies it shd be up about 4% from Fri based on move in silver, dollar, real and nominal yields vs 1% in reality. Ignoring the impact of silver, it should be up ~0.8% which is nearly dead on.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @nope_its_lily
Gold should be up *more* if the SLV->GLD memetic overflow hypothesis (my coinage) is right. The fact that it’s only up ~1% is (weak) evidence against your theory IMO.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod
If the model you mentioned is correct, does it serve as a good prior predictor of gold price? Or does it only work posteriorly?
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No it’s not predictive for the future, it only serves to explain contemporaneous return. There *may* be ways to use it for prediction, DM if interested.
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