Oh look, gold and platinum are also rallying with silver. I wonder why.
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Real yields, inflation expectations, US dollar? A simple 4-factor model for gold return implies it shd be up about 4% from Fri based on move in silver, dollar, real and nominal yields vs 1% in reality. Ignoring the impact of silver, it should be up ~0.8% which is nearly dead on.
Gold should be up *more* if the SLV->GLD memetic overflow hypothesis (my coinage) is right. The fact that it’s only up ~1% is (weak) evidence against your theory IMO.
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If the model you mentioned is correct, does it serve as a good prior predictor of gold price? Or does it only work posteriorly?
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No it’s not predictive for the future, it only serves to explain contemporaneous return. There *may* be ways to use it for prediction, DM if interested.
End of conversation
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You could also check out the futures basis in all four precious metals. Only silver shows anything remotely out of the ordinary, implying that to the extent that there are unusual flows based on weird memes, it is only affecting silver and not other metals.
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