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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 31 Jan 2021

      Oh look, gold and platinum are also rallying with silver. I wonder why.

      19 replies 2 retweets 83 likes
    2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Feb 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily

      Do you think it might be because {gold, silver, platinum, palladium} are *always* correlated with each other on account of being driven by very similar macro factors? It would be a much bigger story if they were moving in opposite directions.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @nope_its_lily

      Gold was up on 82% of days that silver was up over the last ten years. Platinum up on 74% of days that silver was up, palladium up on 70% of days that silver was up. This is not "memetics" it is plain boring old correlation.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 1 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      Err calling it a correlation doesn’t explain any causal factors of why they correlate. In this case do you think macro factors drove gold and platinum?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Feb 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily

      ...yes?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @nope_its_lily

      My point is that observing something that occurs on 80% of days and calling that evidence for your theory is a pretty egregious example of confirmation bias.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 1 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod

      Uh, sure. I provided other examples pretty recently occurring that seem to support the semantic network effect. It’s just this one tended to be easily predictable via it too. There’s no real way to falsify this theory as it is anyway so there’s no real satisfactory proof.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Feb 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily

      Do you not think it’s a bit of a problem to have a theory which is not falsifiable?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 1 Feb 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @nope_its_lily

      Like, you could literally be saying anything and there is no way to confirm whether it is right or wrong! Come on, you are a scientist, you understand this shit!

      6:51 AM - 1 Feb 2021
      • 1 Like
      • Lily.wav
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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