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Fair point! My reasoning is that there is no particular fundamental reason for silver to trade lower (or at any price really) but there is a fundamental reason (interest rates) for the spread to go negative.
Well this aged incredibly badly and is the reason I try not to make discretionary calls! Current backwardation is the largest *ever* in the data I have (1990-present)https://twitter.com/Fullcarry/status/1356159548822876162 …
Not many expected a move like this
If we look from carry stand point, should we go long the Mar contract instead of shorting it to clip the backwardated yield?
Normally yes (backwardated futures curve so carry is positive) but in this case the Mar future also trades at a premium to spot. Normally Spot < Mar < May, if backwardated May < Mar < Spot, but here we have Spot < May < Mar
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