So the point I’d make to refute : @Post_Market may weigh in or disagree
1) long/short pod models were running near peak leverage and max long going into this
2) as shorts run up they need to take leverage down which reduces whatever prior position was (so sell Longs)
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Replying to @goodalexander @nope_its_lily and
There’s a tenuous but plausible story here. Obviously degrossing *per se* cannot cause a market crash since the same amount of stocks will be bought and sold. But it has knock on effects which *could* contribute to a market crash. Specifically, when a fund
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @goodalexander and
Why not? A gap down in price destroys value expeditiously, especially if flows are moving overwhelmingly in one direction
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Replying to @Post_Market @goodalexander and
My point is that if you are degrossing but maintaining the same net exposure, then the net flows are balanced and not overwhelmingly in one direction, so you don’t expect the overall market to go up or down (though can be large moves in individual name).
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @Post_Market and
A really great example is the “quant quake” in Aug 2007 where many quant market neutral funds were caught in a cycle of deleveraging and huge losses resulted *for those funds* but the overall market didn’t even notice.
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Replying to @macrocephalopod @Post_Market and
Hence focus on equity long/short where NAV reductions do eventually lead to net selling pressure.
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Lasse Pedersen has written extensively on this (I don’t think he’s on Twitter) but I bet @CliffordAsness would have something interesting to say if we could tempt him into a discussion.
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