macrocephalopod

NOPE looks like SPY, but it also is not SPY. Also I mean... we have the public backtest results and in all cases there's positive EV based on directional prediction. Superior is a big word here. I cannot make that claim. The whole point is option flows are predictive at all.

the point he’s making is that nope is a measure of intraday price movement more than a measure of option flows

How do you figure that? It is literally volume weighted delta over share volume. You could argue price has some impact on delta, but that doesn't explain at all on low spread days how NOPE still shifts over time.

can you clarify, do you update the delta as spot moves or do you fix the delta at the time the option was traded?

We update the delta as the spot moves.

It doesn't change the trackingness much from what I remember, although in the context of the hypothesis it makes no sense.

if you update delta when spot moves, then spot lower => nope lower and spot higher => nope higher, right? hence “it’s a measure of intraday price movement”

Not particularly, no. There's some tracking sure for options closely near the strike and on opex days, but in general NOPE's movement is largely dictated by incoming trades, which do not move in such a linear way.