macrocephalopod on Twitter: "Even if you used the most extreme forecast of the 10Y (derive from the yield curve assuming zero term premium) you get about 2.5% so ~4% is massively away from consensus.… https://t.co/1TIGu3d1JI"

@macrocephalopod

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‏ @macrocephalopod

Replying to @ValuentumBrian @SkeleCap @quantian1

Even if you used the most extreme forecast of the 10Y (derive from the yield curve assuming zero term premium) you get about 2.5% so ~4% is massively away from consensus.

2:06 AM - 22 Jan 2021

1 reply

1. Wesley‏ @WesleyPehling 22 Jan 2021
  Replying to @macrocephalopod @ValuentumBrian and
  
  If you value SPX using that method but using a risk free rate that isn’t ridiculous and some average for the equity risk premium (avoids circular reference, is relatively stable), you get ~3800. Right where we are.
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