Nice question, here's my take (warning: not an options expert). P&L of your option can be approximated as P&L = theta * dt + 0.5 * gamma * ds^2 + vanna * ds * dv + volga * dv^2 (where s is spot, v is implied vol)https://twitter.com/bennpeifert/status/1352069470903181313 …
The 25d call is long vanna, volga and gamma. The 25d put is long volga and gamma, short vanna. The ATM is long gamma and flat vanna/volga. So the portfolio we want is long 25d call, short 25d put and a small amount of ATM to neutralize the gamma.
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This portfolio just has theta and vanna, so the implied covariance of s, v is (-1) * theta * dt / vanna -- note vanna, theta will both be positive if put vol > call vol, so the covariance will be negative.
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The implied beta is implied covariance / implied variance of the stock. Implied variance is v^s * s^2 * dt, so the implied beta is (-1) * theta / (s^2 * v^2 * vanna) -- note that the dt's cancel (as they should, don't want the answer to depend on time period)
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That's the implied beta for a 1 point move in the underlying. Need to multiply by the underlying price to get the implied beta (in vol points) for a 1% move in the underlying.
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I ignored vega above since we don't generally have a view on the direction of implied vol -- *except* that we will move along the vol surface as time passes and as the stock price changes. Accounting for this would introduce...
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...two new terms, one of which modifies theta and the other modifies vanna, but I think the effect should be small most of the time.
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