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I can not emphasize enough how wrong this poll is. A classic example of framing leading to false choices. It’s absolutely NOT about the cash flows.
Answer totally depends on how the coupon is calculated. This is the entire source of the disagreement between the fixed income dorks (you) and equity dorks (Jesse).https://twitter.com/macrocephalopod/status/1352023440962826247 …
Tbf he was screwed the second he made it a UST. It getting govvie capital treatment is game over.
Agree that capital treatment or tax effects make a difference. But the anchor price (assuming it pays nominal S&P dividend in $) should be the value of S&P, and adjust from there.
i.e. you can’t just take the stream of expected payouts and discount them with a treasury yield, because the size of the payouts is uncertain and you need to increase your discount rate to account for that. How much do you increase by? The equity risk premium!
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