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macrocephalopod
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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Quantian‏ @quantian1 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @Jesse_Livermore

      It's an inflation-linked perpetual bond backed by the US government with less vol and more duration that the S&P, so assuming it was a ~negligible component of the debt structure I expect it would well above the current SPX level, probably with a yield around 1%, so that's 6k

      8 replies 1 retweet 62 likes
    2. Jake‏ @EconomPic 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @quantian1 @Jesse_Livermore

      The default risk is embedded in what’s paid by companies in the S&P 500. There is no risk to what has already been received or what will be received via div. A S&P dividend bond would be priced lower if the bond was issued by a company vs treasury, but 100% discount to S&P 500.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    3. Quantian‏ @quantian1 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @EconomPic @Jesse_Livermore

      Imagine if the government promised to pay the yield on an BBB bond index. Would that promise trade above or below the price level of the index now that you've eliminated the default risk? Why would that be different if you're paying a dividend yield instead?

      3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. Jake‏ @EconomPic 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @quantian1 @Jesse_Livermore

      The default risk is embedded in the cash flows that the high yield bonds pay out! If they default and don’t pay, the “government backed” fund doesn’t pay them either because it pays the exact same cash flows.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @EconomPic @quantian1 @Jesse_Livermore

      With the bond you suffer a loss of principal when it defaults. With the government security you don’t — the bond is just replaced with another one and the yield is ~unchanged. You have the cash flows without most of the default risk (only the coupon is at risk, not the principal)

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Jake‏ @EconomPic 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @quantian1 @Jesse_Livermore

      The principal is reduced because of uncertainty or elimination of the cash flows... those cash flows are identical in the government version so the value would be reduced as well.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @EconomPic @quantian1 @Jesse_Livermore

      Hmm, maybe there is some confusion about how the dividend is paid. Does it pay principal x div yield of index? Or does it pay dollar value of SPX dividend?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Jake‏ @EconomPic 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @quantian1 @Jesse_Livermore

      The EPS or dividend you see in $$ terms for the SPX is based on the EPS yield or dividend yield of all companies within the index x the SPX Index value at the time. What you asked if it’s A or B are the same.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @EconomPic @quantian1 @Jesse_Livermore

      No, one is (SPX dividend / SPX) x SPX and the other is (SPX dividend / SPX) x $100 - makes a massive difference as in the 1st case the coupon falls when SPX falls, in the second case it doesn’t.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Jake‏ @EconomPic 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @quantian1 @Jesse_Livermore

      Ah... I see what you’re saying now. So in this version, the latter version receives no benefit from index appreciation either (other than ability to pay out more dividends)? So big issue there are companies that grow and don’t pay dividends.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @EconomPic @quantian1 @Jesse_Livermore

      Yes exactly.

      2:54 PM - 20 Jan 2021
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      • Jake
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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