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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @QuantVol

      Big tech is up considerably more than small cap tech.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    2. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily @macrocephalopod

      My opinion on all these narratives: "I think is going up because is going up"

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol @macrocephalopod

      Sure. But like I always do, I never explain things in hindsight, because that's silly and useless. My explanation could be incorrect, and there's no real way to test this anyway.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily @macrocephalopod

      you could test by observing price dynamic around the announcement of the shock

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol @nope_its_lily

      Admittedly that’s difficult for one-off events (like dems winning senate) as there can be other factors at play and you can’t really disentangle them from one event.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @nope_its_lily

      do it heuristically with price action around the event, don't estimate anything

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol @nope_its_lily

      I mean, what if there are other contemporaneous events? It’s not like dems winning the senate was something that happened instantaneously.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @nope_its_lily

      make a tighter window around the announcement this is the only exercise I can think of (or you could construct a political news index and then estimate), which is better than "looking for the price action that confirm my hunch"

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol @nope_its_lily

      Yeah I get what you are saying. My only point is that there was no “announcement” that the dems won the senate so you can’t tighten the window. Ppl became more confident that they had won as the count went on. By the time it was official, everyone already knew, so no px impact.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @QuantVol

      I mean there certainly was an announcement period in that regard. No one knew the outcome at market close on 1/5 and everyone more or less knew it by open at 1/6.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily @QuantVol

      Right, but a bunch of other shit happened in that period. Not like you can attribute the whole thing to the senate result.

      11:33 AM - 20 Jan 2021
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @QuantVol

          Sure, hence why I mentioned that the fairest way to estimate it posteriorly is to look over a wide enough time range. By then sectoral trends should be fairly apparent.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @nope_its_lily

          we knew when was the election we don't know the time at which was confirmed look around that window. that's the best you can do, otherwise just look for the left hand side you want to make your rhs "correct"

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
          Replying to @QuantVol @macrocephalopod

          Confirming is probably irrelevant, the news that matters is when the market writ large assumed the Democratic victory was more probable than not.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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